As 2010 gains momentum, it important to look back and see where we have been before we know where we are going. There are many "New Year's predictions" articles in the blogoshere, but there are not that many that look back at the previous years predictions to check for accuracy. Let's take a look a my 2009 predictions to see if I am deserving of a Christal Ball award for clairvoyance.
2009 Prediction Reality Check
1. PREDICTION - Yahoo! will Fade Away, REALITY - Yahoo! is still here
With a new CEO at the helm, Yahoo! has made some very significant changes in 2009. The biggest of which is deciding to outsource their search engine to Microsoft. Whether this will help usher in a new era for Yahoo! is unknown, but for now Yahoo! appears to have stabilized under its new leadership.
2. PREDICTION - Online Video will Monetize and Standardize, REALITY - Monetize (No) Standardize (Yes)
The IAB published an update to their Digital Video Ad Measurement Guidelines in December of 2009. Monetization of Online Video is still elusive. However, the usage has been continually growing. According to the latest report issued by Nielsen Online, 137.4 million Americans watched Web video in December, a healthy increase of 10.3 percent versus the same month in 2008. Those viewers streamed over 10.7 billion videos during the month, representing an increase of 11.8 percent versus the same time period a year earlier.
3. PREDICTION - Government will Embrace Technology, REALITY - Happening!
As I continually receive email updates from the Obama Administration, it is clear that government is changing. Barack Obama initiated his first Tweet on January 13, 2010. However, these changes are taking a longer time to make their way to other government offices such as the US Postal Service.
4. PREDICTION - Touch Screen Trend will Phase Out Again, REALITY - Not Yet!
Just last week Apple announced it will be coming out with the infamous "T" word: A Tablet PC. There have been many Tablet PC's that have crashed and burned, we will see if Apple can pull it off. However, the e-Book Reader market is flourishing and appears to be the perfect application for the Touch-Screen form factor. Of course, every week more and more iPhone knock-offs are hitting the market. I am a hardcore Blackberry user and when I finally lost my patience with my wireless provider, T-Mobile, I decided to try the touch screen Blackberry Storm2. My trial did not even last 1 month and am thrilled to have a mobile device with a keyboard!
5. PREDICTION - BtoC E-Commerce will Flourish, REALITY - It's happening!
Discounts spurred an 11 percent jump in online sales on Black Friday and a 10 percent gain on Thanksgiving, according to research firm comScore.
6. PREDICTION - Social Networking Ad Revenue will be Flat, REALITY - Very little growth in 2009.
Initially, there were predictions that social networking ad revenue would decrease in 2009. However, the research firms reversed their prediction toward to end of the year suggesting that there would be there would be an increase of 4% (clickz).
Three out of 5 is not bad! Now, let's look at predictions for 2010.
1. PREDICTION - Facebook will go public
Facebook appears to have reached somewhat of a plateau. They are starting to make much needed profit with advertising and investors must be ready to reap the fruits of their labor. I expect an IPO in 2010.
2. PREDICTION - Apps Marketing Standardization
Apps for mobile devices and social networking have not formally been able to stand of their own as fare as a marketing medium is concerned. However, their usage is exponentially increasing. I expect applications to have some form of standardization in 2010.
3. PREDICTION - Microsoft will "Fling" Bing
Is there anyone actually using this search engine??? I didn't think so!! Seriously, the actual data suggests that Bing is capturing 10% of searches in the US. The question I have is this, is that any better than MSN before Bing? Actually, it is less! According to Compete MSN had 25% of US searches in 2007.
Happy New Year!!!
